PassionFruit: Daring to be Different

What I could really use some help with is market trending and revenue forecasting!

My name is Jen Middleton and I'm planning to put a Juice Bar / Club for 13-20year olds at 3676 Main Street in Hilliard, Ohio. I grew up there and we've never really had an after-school hangout, unless you count the Dairy Queen or bowling alley. All of the young adults I've spoken to about it are really excited!

I'm new to SBDC and signed up for the classes next month and into August, but I'm trying to work on my business plan now. I have no idea where to find market trending and revenue forcasting information for juice bars / smoothie places / entertainment venues! I have an estimated population pool size, but I'm pretty much just making up theoretical statistics at this point in an attempt to guess how much I can make a month - namely how many people will come by! Below is a portion of my current business plan, citing market competitors:

"The major competitors in the broader market can be broken down on two sides. Beverage and juice bar-wise, there are Smoothie King, Jamba Juice, Orange Julius, and Planet Smoothie. Of those, Planet Smoothie has the closest ambiance, actually encouraging people to stay and drink instead of a grab-and-go. On the entertainment side, there are Chuck E. Cheese’s and Dave & Buster’s – similar concepts wherein there are lots of games for groups to play, earn tickets, and win carnival-style prizes. Chuck E. Cheese’s is aimed at families and small children, while Dave & Buster’s has a (regular) bar in many of its chain buildings, but both are group-style hangouts. Both franchises’ nearest establishments are 2+ miles away from PassionFruit’s proposed location, and neither promotes dancing."

Tags: bar, club, hilliard, juice, nightclub

▶ Reply to This

Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Rob Maccabee on June 24, 2011 at 5:34pm

Hi Jen!

Congrats on your new venture. Pretty exiting, huh? It seems that knowing what % of a given population might "come by" an Orange Julius might not correlate to your proposed business. And it doesn't look as if you are trying to replicate those other business models anyway.

Knowing how many potential customers in your geographic area (age group you are trying to attract withing a distance radius) might provide a better picture. You might start with this data http://www.city-data.com/city/Hilliard-Ohio.html and then test/poll to verify a need and viability. That way you can determine what % of potential customers you need to meet your financial goals and then devise some tactics to reach and attract them.

I hope this makes sense. Good luck!!!!!!

Rob Maccabee

Payex, The simplest payment processing anywhere.

614/488-8472 ext 1101

▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Jen M. Middleton on June 24, 2011 at 8:25pm

Thanks for your input, Rob!

I know some of that data already from having contacted the school districts themselves for enrollment numbers: There are 8,186 students in Hilliard City Schools between grades 6 & 12, so that covers the 13-17 bracket and part of the 18 year olds. By extending 1 district out, and not including Columbus, the number becomes 31,190 students. That's pretty much the maximum area I expect to be able to draw from.

I don't suppose personal experience counts as having verified a need, huh? I went through Hilliard City Schools K-12 and the complaint was always the same: there's nothing to do in Hilliard. We all hung out at the Dairy Queen and McDonald's (near where I want to put my club) because there was literally nowhere else to go in walking distance. I've watched the businesses change in the years since I've graduated, but there still isn't a "fun hangout" for young adults in the vicinity. I'm just not sure how to corroborate what I know without knocking on doors.

So I guess that means data on DQ, McD's, the Donato's in that area, and the Burger King would all be more important than the Orange Julius or Dave & Buster's, huh?

▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Rob Maccabee on June 27, 2011 at 9:49am

Sure personal experience counts! A lot of great ideas come from a person needing for wanting something that doesn't exist or seeing a way to make an existing situation better.

Maybe try to engage your potential customers (and parents, teachers) through a Facebook page or put up a quick website (Wordpress and other template-based sites are free or cheap) and create a "virtual hangout" while you are researching and developing the brick and mortar idea. Get their feedback on what they would want to see or experience to inform you of what a "fun hangout" will look like. You will also be able to build a list and establish connections so when you do open, they will be ready and excited to come see you. It's kind of the virtual way of knocking on doors.